ExxonMobil Outlook Projects 30 Billion Tons of CO2 in 2050, Warns of 2.5C to 3C Warming

ExxonMobil released its annual Energy Outlook on September 17, 2026, around G20 energy ministerial week in Houston. The company raised its projection for global carbon dioxide emissions in 2050 to about 30 billion metric tons, roughly 10 percent higher than a year earlier. That figure is down only about 20 percent from the 2025 level of roughly 36 billion metric tons. It is almost three times the roughly 11 billion metric tons that the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change says would be consistent with limiting warming to 2 degrees Celsius above preindustrial levels.

ExxonMobil Economic and Energy Director Prasanna Joshi said the world is 'nowhere close' to the 2C target. He said that at this pace, the world is on track for a temperature increase of between 2.5C and 3C by 2050. The outlook attributes the upward revision to slower adoption of emissions mitigation technologies such as carbon capture and storage and low carbon hydrogen, whose projected deployment fell by about one third versus last year. It also points to coal remaining a leading fuel for power generation, especially in Asia Pacific and China.

The warning comes as coal has received support in the United States from the Trump administration, which 'ended the war on beautiful clean coal,' according to US Department of Energy Undersecretary Kyle Haustveit. He said coal 'is still by far and away the largest fuel source for electricity.' The outlook also notes that electricity demand globally will rise 65 percent by 2050, and data centers will double as a proportion of US power usage in the next five years. Phasing out coal has been a focus of the UN's COP conference for at least five years, but coal has remained a key energy source for many countries, particularly in Asia.

Key Facts

Reuters reported on September 17, 2026, that ExxonMobil raised its projection for global CO2 emissions in 2050 to about 30 billion metric tons. That is roughly 10 percent higher than a year earlier and down only about 20 percent from the 2025 level of roughly 36 billion metric tons. The 30 billion ton figure is almost three times the roughly 11 billion metric tons that the IPCC says would be consistent with limiting warming to 2 degrees Celsius. Joshi said the world is 'nowhere close' to the 2C target and that, at this pace, it is on track for a temperature increase of between 2.5C and 3C by 2050.

Bloomberg reported on September 17, 2026, that ExxonMobil Holdings Corp. warned the world is on course for rapid global temperature increases as coal use persists, pushing emissions beyond mid century climate goals. The company projected carbon dioxide emissions of 30 billion metric tons in 2050, almost three times the levels needed to limit global warming to 2C (3.6F) above preindustrial norms. Projections for carbon capture and storage and low carbon hydrogen dropped by about one third from last year because of affordability and a 'lack of willingness to pay,' Joshi said.

The Detroit News reported on September 17, 2026, that persistent coal use is putting the world on pace to greatly exceed goals aimed at limiting climate change. The company estimates global carbon dioxide emissions will be 30 billion metric tons in 2050, almost three times the levels needed to limit global warming to 2C (3.6F) above preindustrial norms, and about 10 percent higher than a year ago as adoption of mitigation efforts such as carbon capture slows and coal remains one of the top fuels for power generation. Joshi said, 'We are seeing clear signs that coal is sticking longer from an energy security and other perspectives, specifically in parts of Asia Pacific, China and others.'

Finwires reported on September 17, 2026, that ExxonMobil's Energy Outlook projects the global energy mix in 2050 will remain heavily dependent on oil and natural gas, which together grab a 55 percent share. Oil demand is projected to reach 105 million barrels per day in 2050, up from 100 million bpd in 2025. Renewables grow the fastest, more than doubling to 15 percent of the mix in 2050 from 6 percent in 2025. Coal consumption is projected to decline by 30 percent and its share of the global energy mix to fall to 15 percent in 2050 from 25 percent.

Analysis

What this really means is that the world's energy transition is not happening fast enough to meet the climate goals set by the IPCC. ExxonMobil's own forecast shows that global CO2 emissions will be 30 billion metric tons in 2050, nearly three times the roughly 11 billion metric tons needed to keep warming to 2C. The company attributes the upward revision to slower adoption of carbon capture and storage and low carbon hydrogen, whose projected deployment fell by about one third versus last year. Affordability and a lack of willingness to pay are cited by Joshi as reasons. This is a market signal: mitigation technologies are not being deployed at the scale or speed required.

The bigger picture here is that coal is proving stubborn. Despite at least five years of COP focus on phasing out coal in favor of natural gas, wind, solar and nuclear, coal remains a key energy source for many countries, particularly in Asia. Rising liquefied natural gas prices and the intermittent nature of some renewables have slowed the shift. The Trump administration in the United States has supported coal, with Department of Energy Undersecretary Kyle Haustveit saying the administration 'ended the war on beautiful clean coal' and that coal 'is still by far and away the largest fuel source for electricity.' This political support, combined with energy security concerns, makes a rapid coal decline unlikely.

ExxonMobil's projection of oil and gas at 55 percent of the 2050 energy mix, down only slightly from 56 percent in 2025, underscores how entrenched fossil fuels remain. Oil demand is expected to reach 105 million barrels per day in 2050, up from 100 million bpd in 2025, while natural gas demand grows to 520 billion cubic feet per day from 440 bcf/d. Renewables more than double to 15 percent of the mix from 6 percent, but that is not enough to displace fossil fuels on the timeline needed. Even with coal consumption down 30 percent and its share falling to 15 percent from 25 percent, emissions remain far above the 2C pathway.

Why It Matters

The difference between 2C and 2.5C to 3C of warming is not abstract. The IPCC has warned that limiting warming to 2C above preindustrial levels would avoid the worst effects of climate change, including more extreme heatwaves, droughts, floods and sea level rise. ExxonMobil's outlook suggests that the world is on track to miss that target by a wide margin. The company's own Economic and Energy Director, Prasanna Joshi, said the world is 'nowhere close' to the 2C target. That admission from a major oil company carries weight because it is based on the company's own energy modeling, not on advocacy.

The report also highlights the role of rising electricity demand and data centers. Global electricity demand will rise about 65 percent by 2050, driven by improved living standards in developing countries, industrial activity, data centers and electric vehicles. In the United States, data centers will double as a proportion of power usage in the next five years. If that demand is met with coal and natural gas, emissions will remain high.

The policy implications are significant for the UN's COP31 and for national governments. Phasing out coal has been a focus of the COP conference for at least five years, but the ExxonMobil outlook suggests that effort is lagging. Without stronger policies to accelerate carbon capture, low carbon hydrogen, renewables and coal retirement, the world will continue on a path to 2.5C to 3C warming. The report also says sustained oil and natural gas investment is more critical than ever, a direct challenge to calls for rapid fossil fuel phase out.

Next Up

The next major test will be the UN's COP31, where countries are expected to revisit coal phase out commitments and emissions reduction targets. ExxonMobil's outlook will likely be cited by both critics and supporters of fossil fuels. Critics will point to the 30 billion ton projection and the 2.5C to 3C warming estimate as evidence that current policies are failing. Supporters will cite the report's conclusion that sustained investment is more critical than ever, especially as electricity demand grows 65 percent by 2050.

Investors and policymakers will also watch whether the projected one third drop in carbon capture and storage and low carbon hydrogen deployment reverses. Affordability and a lack of willingness to pay were cited by Joshi as reasons for the decline. If those technologies do not scale, the gap between the 30 billion ton emissions path and the 11 billion ton 2C path will remain wide. The company's next annual Energy Outlook, due in 2027, will show whether the slower coal decline and the upward emissions revision become a trend or a one year adjustment.