Climate Crisis Is Supercharging Europe's Wildfire Weather, Study Finds

The extreme heat and drought stoking huge wildfires in Spain and France were made far more likely by the climate crisis, a scientific analysis has found. Global heating made the hot, dry, and windy conditions in Spain at least 20 times more likely, the Guardian reported on July 31.

What the Study Found

The analysis used the standard "attribution science" methodology: comparing the likelihood of the observed weather pattern in a world without climate change versus the world as it is now. The hot-dry-windy combination that has driven the Spanish fires was at least 20 times more likely in today's climate than in a preindustrial one. For some specific regions, the multiplier exceeded 50x.

"Extremely scary findings show climate crisis is supercharging Europe's wildfire weather," the Guardian wrote.

Where It's Burning

Spain has been hit hardest, with more than 500,000 hectares burned across Europe this summer. France has also seen major fires, and Portugal, Italy, and Greece have all activated emergency response plans. The fire season is now 2-3 months longer than it was in the 1980s, and the burned area per fire is several times larger, because fuel loads are higher and weather conditions are more extreme.

What's Next

The attribution analysis is one of several expected this season. As fires continue, additional studies will examine specific events, including the most extreme days. The work is published in real time by World Weather Attribution and Copernicus. Adaptation planning in southern Europe is now being revised to account for the new fire-risk baseline.